Monday, November 01, 2010

Prediction Time! Part 2.... ish

Note for Facebook users: These Notes are auto-copied from my somewhat lame, largely ignored blog ( Please feel free to crumble up this webpage and throw it in a trash can if you don't care about such things. I know I would.

Seems as if there is an election tomorrow. Basically, this is an chance for me to do more pretend betting. Crystal Ball, activate!

For the record, midterms almost ALWAYS go against the party in the White House. I think since 1950, only 3 of them have not. So a betting trend is clearly established from which I can work. Also, there are basically two polling trends - registered voters, and likely voters. And the differences in those two indicates to me a lot of people simply aren't going to vote tomorrow.

U.S. Senate: 51/49 Dems
House-o-Reps: 231/201 GOP
Governors: Who cares?

According to all the research I can find, the higher the turnout, the more it will favor the democrats, who appear to be completely disinterested in this election. But really... looking through the data, all you have to do is look at the total spent by a given party. As the money goes, so goes the voting.

And if you thought the last 2 years were partisan? Wait for the next two! All this is nothing more than table setting for 2012, which will be the real ideological battle. I'm actually fascinated to see how the hard right GOP candidates get along with their GOP brethren, and who the GOP role out as House Speaker.

Notable predictions: Reid loses in NV, big Senate wins in WV, Ill, and CO for the GOP. John Boehner gets the Speaker of the House job (not a bad choice, all factors considered).

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right. Let the theatrics begin!

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