Rob's well-formed thoughts

Predictions Sure to Go Wrong

2011-09-02T10:43:00.002-04:00

My friend Tim pinged me the other day and asked if I was going to make my annual football predictions. Sure, why not? Here you go, Timmay.

Looking at the Washington Redskins, I am definitely NOT drinking the Kool-Aid. I don't see much here. I see a team that tried a lot harder than most of their preseason opposition, and got a lot of people excited. But the NFL is about talent. You have got to have it if you want to be successful - being smart simply isn't enough. I see a team that will either go 5-11 or 6-10. Why the two? Well, looking at the schedule I see a 5-win season. But the last game of the season is at Philadelphia, who should be looking at a playoff birth and a first round bye, so I expect them to rest starters and play it like a preseason game. If the Redskins win that game, it's 6. Otherwise, 5. I want to like John Beck at quarterback, but I don't think he has the athletic tools needed to make a difference. The worst part here is, at 5-11 or 6-10, they'll pick low enough in the draft to miss out on one of the big time QB prospects coming out next year that could really help them. I think the culture is finally starting to shift a bit, which is a good thing, but real progress is a long way off.

Super Bowl? Hmmmmmm.... Patriots over Eagles. I think Tom Brady is loaded for bear this year, and Philadelphia is good. I almost stuck in Pittsburgh over New England, but I've just got a hunch about Brady and a revamped defense for the Patriots. The Jets could be interesting. There's not much to challenge the Eagles in the NFC, *maybe* the Saints (running game and defensive question marks) and even less of a maybe to the Falcons (who need to get better on defense). And yes, this means Albert Haynesworth will win a Super Bowl title, further making the Redskins look like idiots.

The Maryland Terrapins. Honestly, who the hell knows? There's more questions marks here than in the Riddler's hideout. That being said, they do have a legit quarterback, which counts for a lot. They've lost a lot of players, due to suspensions, transfers, recruits changing commitments, etc. Changing head coaches will do that. I like Randy Edsall, right now, but I'm only giving him one year (this season and this years recruiting class). I want to see his 2012 team and then I'll decide on this guy. As for 2011, well, I'm going go with 7-5, BUT, I reserve to the right make a change after seeing them play Miami in Week 1 (a game I think they'll win). The range here can go from 3-9 to 9-3, there's just so many unknown quantities.

National Champion.... Oklahoma. Dark horse: Alabama. Oregon simply doesn't have the big nasties on either side of the ball. No one else jumps out at you and demands your attention. I think I did pretty well last year on the Redskins, but the Terps surprised me. In any case, we'll know a lot more by mid-February.

Rob's Rules of Political Campaigning

2011-05-01T13:57:00.002-04:00

I'm going to try something a bit different here.

Usually, my blog posts - as infrequent as they are - are about something I've been chewing on for some time, something that I've flushed out pretty well in terms of how I feel about it. Sometimes, they are simply reactionary; I see something that gets my attention, and I essentially comment on it. Rarely is there ever an arc, or theme to several posts, and I think I'm going to try that for a bit, and see what happens. If they suck, so what? You're not paying for this and I promise you it takes me more time to write it than for you to read it.

The 2012 election for President of the United States is starting to simmer. One candidate is all but certain: Barack Obama, who has announced he's running and is the incumbent. It would take extraordinary circumstances for him to not be the Democratic candidate. The other side of the ballot is less than certain - which is a huge understatement.

So as I search out for a candidate to get my vote in November 2012, I figured hey, why not put some criteria together? Sure, why the hell not, sounds good to me.

Number 1: Don't make your message all about bashing your opponent. Look, I'm pretty damn smart, and I really don't need someone jumping up and down telling me what someone else is doing wrong. I can pretty much figure that out for myself. If your candidacy is based on the other guy being wrong, well, who is to say you're right? Talk about yourself, first and foremost. If I want to hear about the other guy, I I'll listen to what he has to say. Would you go into a job interview and say "You should hire me because Joe over there is a terrible person"? No. Impress me.

Number 2: Show me the math. Don't walk around spouting how (random legislative policy) is going to create jobs or cut the deficit. Show me the math - prove your work. If someone looked at your deck and said "yeah, just cut a 2x6 that is 14 feet and 6 3/4 inches long" without actually measuring, would you believe him? Of course not. I understand Economics is not an exact science, but, if your economic theory is a talking point or part of a larger platform that you didn't actually set, I'm sending your homework back for a re-do.

Number 3: Speaking of platforms, if you're simply a boilerplate guy who is parroting the platform of the party you are running under, move on. I find it inconceivable that someone would agree with EVERY little thing and have no thoughts of their own on a topic. Any topic. Don't be the Politibot 3000 and rubber stamp everything you see. Your job is going to be hard. It's going to require a lot of intelligent, creative thinking and problem solving skills that would perplex most people. Show me you can do that and I'll vote for you. Maybe.

Number 4: Charisma is nice, but honestly I don't care. I'm focused on message, not delivery. I was on my way to a music gig at a place where then Senator Obama was campaigning, and really, all he was doing was stirring up the crowd. Content Counts first and foremost. Don't jump up and down saying we need more jobs, explain to me how you're going to create more jobs. And show me the math.

That's enough for now I think, but I'll continue with this as time goes by.

(Note for Facebook users: My blog appears courtesy of http://wellformedthoughts.blogspot.com/)

Welcome Back to the Chief Anger Officer

2011-04-15T08:59:00.003-04:00

Hello. It's me, you friendly neighborhood Spiderman. I know I haven't been around much lately. See, I've grown tired of of much of the debate in this country. Simply put, it isn't debate anymore. It's religion. It's zealotry. It's people advocating and espousing their "sides" ideals and philosophies and attempting to shout down the other side for their own benefit.

I don't have time for that.

I choose not to take part in that.

You don't have to agree with the "other side" but I think you have to be able to acknowledge that in the vast majority of issue-based debates that 99% of what is being said is opinion, and that your opinion - or mine - is no more "right" than anyone elses opinion. You can respect the person, and their opinion, even if you don't agree with either. No really, you can.

Yes, you can.

Look, I don't care what you really think about abortion, taxes, government, American Idol, Cap'n Crunch, etc. You are, IN MY OPINION, entitled and empowered to think and believe whatever you want about whatever you want. You might think the New York Yankees are the best thing since sliced bread. You might think the Boston Red Sox are the best thing since sliced bread. And you can tell me that until the cows come home if you'd like. But if I didn't ASK you about the Red Sox, or Cap'n Crunch, or budget policies, I reserve the right to tell you to go tell it somewhere else because there's a chance I could not care less. I also reserve the right to listen, and agree or disagree, at my choosing. My choosing. Not yours. Mine. MINE. I don't care what religion you are or to which political party you belong - I don't believe that is the sole definition of who you are, or what you are.

So you might be asking at this point "What do I care about?" and I will tell you that is a reasonable question.

I care about being a good person. Don't define that for me - I will define that for myself (as you should for yourself). I have that right. If you don't like the way I define that for me, get lost. I don't care to know you, and I won't miss you. Conversely, if I don't like the way you define that for yourself, I will probably remove myself from your life.

I think a "good person" treats others with courtesy and respect. They see someone who looks lost and asks if they need directions. They see a child crying and ask if they need help. If asked to help, they usually say yes and do so without expecting anything in return. They mostly follow and observe the laws (I've been known to speed on occasion, hence mostly) and contribute to the betterment of society by waking up, going to work, paying their taxes, etc. They say "please", "thank you", and "you're welcome" and ACTUALLY mean it. Of course they struggle with life sometimes, we all do. We make mistakes, we make bad decisions, and we regret them. I know I have. And I know I try not to repeat them, whenever possible.

In other words, don't be an Ass.

I get that everyone is different, and no one is perfect. There's plenty of room to be colorful, to be "you", within that very general definition of a good person. I think I have a lot of good people in my life, and I think that makes me rather lucky. I also think sometimes good people have their "larger perspective" obscured by the immediateness of what they can often be most passionate at that time, but in the end they are good people and I will try to stick with them. Usually I can, but sometimes I can't.

It's been a while since I've ranted. Feels good to vomit my thoughts into keystrokes.

All I am saying is that we should all strive to be "good people" and treat the people you like in your life as if you like them, even if they are a Yankees fan, or they believe that abortion should be legal, or think that Frosted Flakes pummels Cap'n Crunch. I'm not trying to marginalize you or what you believe - I think it should be part of what defines a person. I'm just saying there's more to life than these insipid little issues.

But that's just my opinion.

A Picture is Worth ...

2010-11-17T15:50:00.003-05:00

1,000 Words.

Redskins get spanked 59-28 by the Eagles. Not sure about the effort the team gave? Check out Albert Haynesworth. This is during an actual play. The whistle has not blown. He wasn't hurt. He quit (arguably, he quit the day he signed his contract).

To make matters worse, The Redskins signed Donovan McNabb to a contract extension. Luckily, it is being reported the Redskins have an out after this season so the deal "only" costs them $3.25 million or so.

McNabb is a nice guy. He's a HUGE upgrade over anyone the Redskins have had playing quarterback since Brad Johnson. But there's something about him that just doesn't click for me.... Maybe it's his accuracy. I don't know, but I do know that while I would have traded for him rather than keep Jason Campbell, I wouldn't keep him for next season unless I cannot get *anyone* else. And that is exactly what Redskins have done.

Prediction Time! Part 2.... ish

2010-11-01T13:37:00.002-04:00

Get a Pitchfork! Get a Torch! Let's get 'em!

2010-10-18T10:59:00.003-04:00

Note for Facebook users: These Notes are auto-copied from my somewhat lame, largely ignored blog (http://wellformedthoughts.blogspot.com). Please feel free to crumble up this webpage and throw it in a trash can if you don't care about such things. I know I would.

This morning, while perusing the daily periodicals, I read this article in the Washington Post. The first two lines appear as such:

"More than half of Americans say they think that federal workers are overpaid for the work they do, and more than a third think they are less qualified than those working in the private sector, according to a Washington Post poll.

Half also say the men and women who keep the government running do not work as hard as employees at private companies."

I've been around the federal government my entire life. I've worked in the private sector supporting the federal government for 15+ years. My aunt and my mother both worked on Capitol Hill for span that between them covered more than 30 years. So when I say this, I have that as my background.

Based on the above polling results, after careful research and objective analysis of the data gathered, I have concluded that more than half of Americans are idiots.

Let's get one thing absolutely crystal clear - people in the federal government work just as hard as people in the private sector. I'm not saying there aren't people who are lax, who cruise control through their day without putting forth a real effort, but what I am saying is that these same people ALSO work in the private sector. I'm not so sure if the perception of the federal government is wrong as much as it is the perception of the private sector. As far as I can tell, the number of "slackers" is proportionate in both the public and private sector. I base this largely on personal observation more than extensive research, so I will admit the sample size of my data is limited to 15+ years of observation.

As for more or less qualified, well, again, I honestly believe that the people being polled simply have no idea. Public sector jobs tend to be more specialized I think, so maybe the broad skill set isn't seen so much on the resume of government workers. I've seen far more unqualified people in private sector jobs than I have in public sector jobs (although I've seen plenty in the private sector, too).

So, for the sake of discussion, let's assume I'm right. I mean, I am right, but it's not worth arguing about. Anyway, assume that for a moment - so why am I right? If you look at the mood of the country, the situation as it stands, you see a country in the midst of its worst economic downturn in 75 years, a country that is nervous, and sees a growing divide of "haves" and "have nots". They get worried, and they look for someone to blame. People are mad. They turn on the TV, the radio, the computer, and lo and behold there is someone telling them who is to blame for their misery.

The Mob is formed.

Let's get 'em!

But who to get? I KNOW - we'll blame the government! They're all evil! Let's get 'em! Fire all of them! Get a rope!

It's become fashionable to blame government for everything in the last few years (not just the last 2). I'm not going to go into the discussion of who is to blame, except to say that the American public have NO IDEA about the vast majority of the federal workforce, or the public workforce for that matter. And left on the sidelines in all this is the state governments and the county governments, both of whom are content to keep their head down as the mob goes by. But the notion that corruption and incompetence are the exclusive domain of the public sector is completely and totally ridiculous. I promise you, dear reader, it exists everywhere that the human animal is present.

Now that being said, could you overhaul the federal government workforce and improve performance? Absolutely. My experience has been there is a bit too much job security and not enough reward/consequence for good/bad work. But the average federal employee, based on my observation, cares about his job and does it to a decent standard. And isn't that what you would hope for from a work force? By the way, I've yet to see a private company that is "perfect", too. Every company carries dead weight and inefficiency.

I'm troubled by the whole lynch mob mentality and how it's starting to be applied. Don't like your Senator, your Congressman, your President? Cool, I'm good with that - not everyone is supposed to. Don't like a given policy? Awesome, having opinions are part of free speech. But focus that discord at the policy makers, the people who make the laws. The GS-9 who works for the Department of the Interior who shows up at his job every day, does his work with a degree of competency isn't the problem. But somewhere, there's a guy sitting in the house next door to the GS-9, cursing that person and getting angrier and angrier because some pundit told him it was the government making him unhappy. And chances are that person has no idea what that GS-9 does or how he does it, but he probably looks down at that person for doing it. And that's wrong.

Here's an exercise. Find a government job that matches what you do. See what it pays. In my own case, a job for the Fed would mean a pay cut, loss of annual bonus, a less flexible work schedule, and an inferior retirement plan.

So where's the well-formed thought? Good question. I suppose its this: if you don't like something, or the way something is being done, take an active role in fixing it instead of getting angry about it. Think government workers are overpaid and unqualified? AWESOME! Go apply for the job, and tell them as a civic service you're more qualified and because you're willing to do the job for the "appropriate" amount of money (read: LESS) they should hire you right there on the spot! I will personally thank you for helping out America.

Stop blaming other people or groups if you're unhappy. If you're unhappy, work to make a change. Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go back to USAJOBS.GOV and find one of those easy, high-paying government jobs everybody seems to have, for myself.

Prediction Time!

2010-09-07T10:51:00.002-04:00

Note for Facebookers: These Notes are auto-copied from my really lame, largely ignored, mostly irrelevant blog. Please feel free to crumble up this webpage and throw it in a trash can.

I love predictions. It's like a game show or something, where I can just spout off and if I'm right I can point back tot hem and say "I TOLD YOU SO!".

That being said.... in no particular order.

Maryland Football. Yep, beat Navy 17-14, so this is tainted. They'll start 4-1, but end the season 4-8. Friedgen resigns. James Franklin (the already hired 'Coach in Waiting') will get the job but only because of the $1,000,000+ penalty UM would have pay him if they don't hire him. By promoting a "no-name" to be head coach, Maryland will be hard pressed to consider themselves a major DI football program, IMO. I still think Freidgen should've resigned after last season.

Washington Redskins. Looking at the breakdown of the schedule, I see them going somewhere between 4-12 and 7-9, so I'll call 5-11 as my official number. They could actually start 2-6, with wins against only the Rams and Lions, but since the Lions game is in Detroit, who knows. I could see them upsetting the Texans. McNabb will only start 13 games, maybe 12. No changes for the team in terms of management or coaching.

Both teams suffer from an absence of talent. Until that gets rectified, this will be the song for years to come.

The NFL in general will not start the 2011 season on time, and may not play it at all. With no collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and the Players Union, the league will lock out the players. Why? Because the TV networks have to pay the NFL whether they play or not. Other than antitrust rules, the league holds all the cards this time. Yes, this is rich men arguing with richer men about money, but it's their business. I do my best to contribute as little possible to Dan Snyder's bottom line already.

The Nationals will re-sign Adam Dunn. They have to, if they want to portray the image of being competitive. Strasburg doesn't pitch in the majors until 2012. and BTW, I'm calling right now that he is OUT OF HERE when he becomes a free agent. But the Nats are on the right path. 2012 looks promising (and yes, in baseball you have to look 3-4 years out) and I think they might be around .500 next year.

The Capitals will have to trade for a goalie mid-season. Neuvirth and Varlamov look like either could stand on their heads and shut out anyone on a given night, but I don't know if either can be consistent over the course of a NHL season.

Socialism? Communism? What do you think?

2010-08-17T16:32:00.002-04:00

Check out this blurb:

"The consequences of this enormous inequality producing so much misery to the bulk of mankind, legislatures cannot invest too many devices for subdividing property… Another means of silently lessening the inequality of property is to exempt all from taxation below a certain point, and to tax the higher portions of property in geometrical progression as they rise. Whenever there is in any country, uncultivated lands and unemployed poor, it is clear that the laws of property have been so far extended as to violate natural right. The earth is given as a common stock for man to labor and live on."

Now, without using Google, tell me who you think wrote the preceding text. Here's a hint: It's someone whose name you will instantly recognize. If you read it a couple times, then re-read it again, you come to see that what is being said is that government has a responsibility to insure that poverty has no place in a given society and that governments should tax the the wealthy and not the poor. And the more you make, the more tax you should pay.

Now, perhaps you might think someone like Karl Marx, Michael Moore, or some other noted evil person would propose such abhorrent socialistic methodology, but the truth is that this quote comes from that notable evil communist named Thomas Jefferson. Yes, that Thomas Jefferson. He wrote that in a letter to James Madison in 1785.

See, what I'm really tired of is people who think any one ideology is "right" and all the others are wrong. Believe me, if that was the case I'm pretty sure the planet would've figured that out by now. Rather, it's a meshing from a variety of ideologies that "fits" - and he's the kicker - what fits today will not fit tomorrow. So when I see such partisanship, such divisiveness in our government and our society as a whole, I really just want to smack people. Nobody has all the answers. Not Barack Obama. Not Rush Limbaugh. Not David Hasslehoff.

You want to fix this country? Let smart people make smart decisions. Don't vote for someone because he's a Democrat, or a Tea Partier, or a Christian, or because he speaks well to crowds. Vote for people who are smart and listen to other smart people - and people who are smarter than they are - and make smart decisions. Then we can start to make progress as a society.

The Least Popular Man on the Planet

2010-07-02T10:22:00.002-04:00

2 July, 2010, 10:22 AM EDT.

That's when I officially started to become the least popular man on the planet. Noted here simply so I can say I knew what I was getting into.

Now I realy fix the Capitals

2010-04-29T10:22:00.002-04:00

Bounced from the playoffs like a small baby on Grandpa's knee.

I've spend a solid 12 hours thinking about this loss. Well, I slept about 7 of those hours, plus getting my son ready and off to school, getting a soda... Ok, I've spent a solid 12 minutes thinking about this.

But I'm convinced the problem here is the coach.

I like Bruce Boudreau. He seems like a good guy. But he didn't adjust one iota to Montreal's gameplan. And if he did, I couldn't tell. His guys were still trying to play "fast break" hockey last night. And Montreal was ready for it. I also HATE the way he handled the goalies this series. Unless there is an overwhelming lack of confidence in Jose Theodore in the locker room, how do you not go back to him in game 7? I know, Varly only gave up 2 goals, but my hunch tells me Theo was going to stone the Habs.

So, as much as I hate to say it, I let Gabby go, but only if I can get a coach to replace him who has WON the Stanley Cup. The Caps have lost 3 game 7's in 3 years, all at home, and the only playoff series they won in the last 3 years they started 0-2 and then struggled to win a 7th game late at home. One year is a fluke. Two years is a trend. Three years is a culture. It's time to change the culture.

Then there are the players. Mike Green. Goodbye. I don't care if you are leading scorer among defensemen, you're shit in your own end, consistently. I trade you for whatever I can get. Alexander Semin. Goodbye. Sorry, I know you scored 40 goals this year, but you're scoreless in 14 straight playoff games, and not by accident. And you're a head case. Brooks Laich, where you even on the playoff roster? Fleischman? Knuble?

Tops on the Caps shopping list - a burly, meaty, TALENTED, nasty forward, a younger Mike Knuble type, but younger and a bit meaner (ok, I want a Dale Hunter type. There, I said it). A shutdown, intimidating defensemen who can help patrol the goal area and set the proper tone in his own end. An aging veteran (think Sergei Federov) who has won the cup that can show these guys how to win in the postseason. Maybe two of those guys.

Granted, my re-made Capitals won't lead the NHL in scoring. They probably won't win the Presidents Cup, but who cares? They'll be ready for the playoffs. They've got 50 weeks to get ready for the only season that counts - how will they spend that time?

In which I fix the Capitals

2010-04-27T11:19:00.003-04:00

The Caps lost game 6 of their 7-game series last night to Montreal 4-1.

A lot of people think these guys are choking. A lot of people are being critical of the people saying these guys are choking. I don't know if they are choking, but they are getting outworked and outcoached.

The Caps during the regular season had the best record in the NHL. They were an unstoppable scoring machine. But that was the regular season, and the cliche' is that everyone "take it up a notch" in the playoffs. Apparently, what that means is everyone plays defense for 60 minutes. Everyone except the Capitals.

That's not fair. Since game 3 the defense has been respectable, but there is no doubt the Caps are getting outworked by a less-talented Montreal team. And there is no doubt Bruce Boudreau is getting out-coached, simply because he has yet to adjust to what Montreal is doing. Boudreau is right about one thing, the Caps have 4 or 5 guys who are simply along for the ride.

So what changes to I make? First, I start Theo. Sorry Varly, but I ride the veteran now. I just feel that he's ready. Second, I yank Mike Green off the Power Play, put in Corvo. Stop forcing the issue with him and Semin - once teams tighten down, these guys wither and crumble under playoff pressure. I get Laich, Knuble, Gordon, et al - the Blue Collar guys - more ice time. I might even make a case for not dressing Semin, especially if he keeps playing like he was on the other team. It's painfully clear they have to get traffic in front of the net in order to get goals. Montreal has figured out it's better to give up 55 bad shots than 25 good ones, and they are letting the Caps shoot from long range where the goalie can see the puck clearly.

At practice today, I would spend the whole time working on fundamental stick-handling and passing drills, and no time on game strategy or power play. I want these guys to come out flying, not thinking about their struggles.

It's hard for me to envision a scenario where the Caps don't eek out a win. Sadly, if they give up the first goal, or go the first two periods without scoring (even if its 0-0), or go down two goals, I think it's over. The Capitals are playing to win a Stanley Cup. The Canadiens are playing to win a series, and that makes them dangerous.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

2010-04-19T11:26:00.002-04:00

Note for Facebookies: These Notes are auto-copied from my really lame, largely ignored blog. Please feel free to crumble up this webpage and throw it in a trash can.

I first heard this phrase used in reference to baseball, when someone was saying there were three kinds of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics. The implication being that a statistic is nothing more than data which can be interpreted in a myriad of ways. The data itself is fact, but the conclusion drawn from an analysis of the data is simply mere opinion.

This makes sense to me. Statistics are often used to support arguments or contrasting points of views. But every so often numbers show their true nature, and can be very revealing and informative.

There has been a lot of outrage / angst / grousing about the direction of our Government lately, and the way they conduct business. If you poll 100 people about the way things are going, you would probably get 102 opinions. I'm leaving that alone - but one thing stood out for me today as I was conducting my morning readings.

Conservatives and "Tea Party-ers" have been protesting, meeting, gathering and one of the common threads I've picked up is that taxes are now too high, the government is taxing everyone to death, blah blah blah. Ok, I got it, you think taxes are too high. So I decided to do a tiny bit of research on my Google Machine.

Did you know that since 1979 through 2006 the effective federal income tax rate on ALL households has been between 19.8% and 23%, with the VAST majority of those years between 20.4% and 22.6%? 2007 numbers are supposed to come out soon, but they are expected to be in the low end of that range based on actual tax rates. If you break the data down into quintiles (20% ranges) then 80% of U.S. citizens pay an even lower percentage than previously mentioned.

I didn't know that. I would've thought by all the jumping up and down it had been all over the map. Note this is "effective" tax rate data - actual tax rates are all over the map but the rules covering what is taxable and what isn't, and what you can deduct have been just as all over the place.

I'm not going to entertain whether or not 21% is too much, not enough, or just the right amount of tax. I'm sure 100 people would give 102 opinions. I will say I've LONG been a fan of doing with a progressive income tax and replacing it with a national sales tax. If you applied a 20% sales tax (in lieu of an income tax) to the 2009 Domestic Gross Product you would not have a Federal Budget deficit this year (at least, the last I checked, it was real close). It's a "fair" tax, meaning everyone pays the same rate. In reality, the rate could be lower and you'd still do far better than now.

So where's my Well-Formed Thought? This time around, I'm passing. I see the data, I draw my own conclusions, and so should you. Don't listen to what you see on TV or hear on the radio (often presented in such a way as to elicit outrage or angst), or even read on the Internet and take it as fact - it's probably a lie, a damn, or a statistic.

Patrick Stewart On Robert Llewellyn's "Carpool" Podcast

2010-03-11T00:52:00.002-05:00

I don't go into the tank too often, but when I do I go all the way into the tank.

If, like me, you're a fan of Patrick Stewart, this is must-see. I can only hope to be this cool at age 69. And the idea for the podcast format is truly amazing to watch - Robert Llewellyn is really onto something here.

Suck it, Leno

2010-03-01T12:37:00.002-05:00

Jay Leno returns to 'The Tonight Show' tonight after having successfully chased off a better comedian and host, Conan O'Brien. If there is any karma in the Universe, Leno will fail miserably. Horribly. He pushed Carson out before he was truly read to go, and he pushed out Conan when he failed miserably in primetime.

Conan is one of the funniest people I've ever seen. He "gets it". Wherever he ends up, he'll be successful. Leno, on the other hand, I have never understood his appeal. He's not funny. To quote Billy Crystal, he's neither fun, nor funny.

Don't believe me? Check out Conan on 'Inside the Actor's Studio". You can find it on Youtube. If you get through the first ten minutes and haven't laughed out loud, move on.

In the interim, please, check out David Letterman tonight. Or the Sham-Wow guy. Just don't watch Leno.

Tiger not out of the Woods

2009-12-11T23:45:00.002-05:00

I love blogging. Well, not really. But it is a nice tool for archiving stuff. Like stupid predictions.

Hey! Here's a stupid prediction! At some point in the next month, Tiger Woods will "admit" to have a sex addiction of some kind, and go into "treatment" (or therapy) for it. Why? Because he needs an "out" of this mess, publicly. Ok, perhaps he actually has one. If he does, then I hope he gets better.

But for the sake of higher quality blog-like crap like this, we're going to assume he doesn't *really* have such an addiction.

He comes out, announces this, goes into some treatment center in Malibu for a few weeks or a month, then a couple weeks later goes on Oprah and tells "his side", admits all of this and asks for the forgiveness of everyone. Oprah, ever so appreciate of the record ratings and the exclusive, takes his side and paints him in the best possible light.

It may not go down that way, but if I was Tiger that's what I would do and that's how I would paint this. We'll see over the next 3 months. But you heard it here first.

Bad news for the Redskins

2009-12-11T10:12:00.002-05:00

(note: Facebookies, these Notes copy over from my blog, http://wellformedthoughts.blogspot.com/)

Back on September 8 I wrote the following:

Maryland Terrapins - 5-7 (yes, I know they already got killed by Cal)
Washington Redskins - 6-10

Opinion: If Maryland goes 5-7, as I think, Ralph Freidgen should resign. You need to recruit better OL/DL/LB types, Ralph. Peer E Uhd. Speculation: Last year for Jason Campbell in a Redskins uniform. Last year for Jim Zorn as head coach. Albert Haynesworth will remind people more of Dana Stubblefield than of Reggie White, and he'll miss at least 3 games. And hopefully, if they hire a Bill Cowher / Mike Shannahan / Jon Gruden type to come in, it means bye-bye for Vinny Cerrato. I'll help you pack your office, Vinny.

Ok, so I was actually optimistic on both, even though at the time I was in the very low end of most opinions. And the opinions and speculations, I stand by those.

Maryland Football, it's a mess, and frankly, they are now being cost-conscious which means they won't be good for a while. Like 10 years.

But the Redskins. Oi. People, it's NOT going to get better. Why? I read in an article where Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato recently both took a trip to scout Colt McCoy, QB at Texas and Heisman hopeful.

And that's it in a nutshell.

Problem A. NFL owners are NOT qualified to scout college players. I don't care how smart you are, or how much money you make, or how successful you are in business. Dan Snyder has no business evaluating college talent. If he's got that much free time, come wash my car. Remember last year when Snyder was in love with Mark Sanchez (of USC, who went to the Jets), Jake Cutler, and who knows how many else QBs? Clearly, Snyder has a thing for "big name" QBs.

Problem B. If Snyder is jet-setting around the country with Vinny, he's not getting rid of Vinny any time soon. So, if you accept A and B as true, as I do, you come to the conclusion it will be business as usual next year for the Redskins. More losing, more mediocrity.

At this point, I can't imagine there are ANY big name coaches (established difference makers) who will work in this scenario.

There has been exactly ONE coach who has finished his tenure with the Snyder-owned Redskins at .500 (no coach in the Snyder era has compiled a winning record) - Marty Schottenheimer. Read this article (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2009/12/schottenheimer_on_cerrato.html?wprss=dcsportsbog) and you'll see things more clearly.

Prediction? Way too early, but right now, Zorn gets fired, Vinny stays, no established coach wants to come here and the Redskins reach on some young college guy or NFL assistant. Just like they did with Jim Zorn. Then they draft a big name college QB (McCoy, or Sam Bradford, or Jimmy Clausen), a WR, and a RB. They won't address the OL, DE, or LB issues significantly. And they'll go 4-12 or 6-10 next year.

Jason Reid of the Washington Post put it perfectly - "Dan Snyder could go out and hire a big name coach/GM to handle all the football operations, win 4 of the next 5 Super Bowls, and he would be miserable because he didn't do it himself."

Darker days lay ahead, Redskins fans. Darker than we've seen and darker than you can imagine.

Flame On!

2009-12-09T11:45:00.003-05:00

I'm tired. Really.

I'm not just sleepy tired, although I am sleepy tired. Specifically, I'm tired of people. Not just all people, but certain people. Maybe I'm just annoyed, more than tired. But I digress.

I'm tired of people who think that because they belong to some sort of group, or hold some sort of ideology, or have certain physical traits, that they are better than someone / everyone else, or people who are outside of whatever category "empowers" them to think they are superior.

Just because you are (insert your chosen faith here) doesn't make you ANY better than someone who isn't (insert your chosen faith here).

Just because you are (insert your chosen political party here) doesn't make you ANY better than someone who isn't (insert your chosen political party here).

I'm tired of "in shape" people who think they are better than "fat" people.

I'm tired of people of ANY race who think they are better than any other race.

The list goes on, and on, and on....

I believe the problems with our society, our country, and our world, largely stem from people who think that because they are (whatever) they are better than people who aren't (whatever). I think if YOU are one of those people, I think YOU are the problem. And I mean this in complete sincerity - If you ARE one of those people, I don't want to know you, anymore, ever again. Period. Delete my email address. Erase my phone numbers. Unfriend me from Facebook. Take me off your Christmas card list. Consider me dead and forget I ever existed.

See, I prefer to think that being part of a group, either by choice or by heritage, is nothing more or less than that. You're a part of a group. The value of a person, the worth and quality of that person, are defined by the actions we take in life. The way we treat other people. How we chose to interact with the world.

Don't get me wrong - I don't devalue ANY of these groups, beliefs, or people. I have no problem if someone wants to be a Catholic, a Muslim, a Pagan, a Boy Scout, a Soldier, Straight or Gay, a Democrat or a Republican, it's doesn't matter. Heck, you can even be ignorant for all I care, it's up to you. Being something is a good thing, it can give you a sense of of belonging and community, a feeling of accomplishment.

BEING something isn't wrong. Thinking it makes you better than me by simply being it, yeah, I'm done with that, and I'm done with those people. And I won't miss you.

This world has become so polarized it's not funny, and that's a bad thing. I truly believe the "American Way" is two things: One, a system of government where the people are ultimately responsible, and Two, the freedom to be ANYTHING you want WITHOUT someone judging you for being that thing (ok, disclaimer here - anything legal. Yeah, if you're an Axe Murderer or a Kid Toucher, you're going to get judged, rightly so. I'm more on an ideological rant than a literal rant).

I'm not asking for everyone to hold hands and sing Kumbayah. I think disagreement is fine, and in fact I think it's necessary. But you know what else is fine? Civility. Modesty. Live and let live.

Actions, people. What we DO matters most.

Besides, everyone knows smart people, like myself, are better than everyone else, anyway. ;-)

The Chicken or the Egg?

2009-11-01T17:05:00.002-05:00

I once asked my friend Steve what was more important to him, the freedoms granted in the Constitution, or the process defined in the Constitution for the people to perform self-governance? Don't worry, I had to explain my question to Steve as well :-D

Basically, it works out to be, what's more important - the specific freedoms we presently enjoy, or, the freedom of process to decide what rights we have as a society. For example, presently we have things like the freedom to bear arms, free speech, protections against searches and seizure, etc. as amendments to the Constitution. But what if those amendments changed in a legal and valid fashion?

The Constitution defines the process for amending itself (you can't repeal an amendment if you want to remove it, you have to pass an amendment nullifying a different amendment) that requires Congressional approval followed by 3/4 of the states ratifying that amendment via a Constitutional Convention. Sound complicated? It's supposed to be.

So why do I bring this up? I was recently made aware of a group called "Oath Keepers" that got me thinking about this again. Intrigued, I spent an hour or so reading their website. It's quite the noble organization, but I found some discrepancies I simply couldn't just dismiss. Their mission statement reads as follows:

"Oath Keepers is a non-partisan association of currently serving military, reserves, National Guard, veterans, Peace Officers, and Fire Fighters who will fulfill the Oath we swore, with the support of like minded citizens who take an Oath to stand with us, to support and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic, so help us God. Our Oath is to the Constitution."

I'm good with that, makes sense as I see it. But once I kept reading, I discovered their Declarations, which begins as such:

"Recognizing that we each swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic, and affirming that we are guardians of the Republic, of the principles in our Declaration of Independence, and of the rights of our people, we affirm and declare the following:"

and then it goes on to list the 10 orders they will not follow, the first of which reads "1. We will NOT obey orders to disarm the American people.".

Hmmmmm.

So here's the problem. Simply put, you cannot decide which amendments to the Constitution are "right" and which are "less important" when you promise to defend the Constitution. For example, WHAT IF the American people decide they no longer want to guarantee the right to bear arms, and ratify a valid, legal amendment to Constitution that removes the Second Amendment?

What now? Defend the Constitution, or defend the specific amendment? Chicken, or Egg?

Anyone who knows me knows I would say the Constitution is the more important thing. I like the way it is presently structured and support the freedoms in grants. But I support the document, the process of the people to self govern, above those amendments. I think a lot of people get caught up in the specifics of the amendments as the driving doctrine, and often miss a lot of the big picture.

All that said, if you can get 38 states to agree on ANYTHING, it's probably a no-brainer.

And what did Steve answer? He thought about it for a few weeks, and he decided the process was the thing as well, but, he also said he thought that some of the freedoms should be untouchable as well. Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz In other words, he couldn't really decide.

Chicken, or Egg?

A lesson in being unpopular

2009-09-11T11:39:00.003-04:00

Today is September 11, 2009. It marks the 8th Anniversary of the terrorist attacks involving 4 commercial airliners against the United States of America. For the majority of Americans, and maybe even the world, it's the day that has defined and shaped much of the 21st Century.

I say majority of Americans, but not all. Because it wasn't that kind of day for me.

Before I start on this let me say this: I love my country. I consider myself to be an upstanding citizen, and I think we here in the U.S. have figured out a pretty good system of government. I am in no-way "anti-American" and believe in the Constitution of the United States. I believe the society that has arisen from this document is special and unique and worth preserving.

9/11 simply doesn't have the impact for me that has for most people. On 9/11 I remember logging into my AOL account and seeing a news report that a plane had hit the World Trade Center and assumed it was some knucklehead from Yonkers in his twin-engine Cessna who couldn't figure out how to steer his plane. Just before leaving for work I decided to check out the news, and for the next two hours I watched the second tower get hit, heard the reports of the Pentagon being hit, and saw the collapse of the World Trade Center towers. And then I called my mom, who was at Johns Hopkins in the final days of her battle with Pancreatic cancer, a battle we knew she was rapidly losing, a battle she would ultimately lose 10 days later.

A lot of things happened over the next few days, but the circumstances of that time will always be overshadowed, for me, by the loss of my mom. We talked about 9/11 a couple of times, and she was worried about the world she was leaving us to look after. I told her I thought everything would be ok, we'd figure out who did this and where they were, and remove them from existence. I still hope I'm right about that. I truly did believe that at the time, that we would deal with this, figure out who did it and systematically remove then from the face of the earth. I think the saddest part of the whole thing is that eight years later we're still in Afghanistan chasing around the knuckleheads behind all this.

I understand why it affected so many people, why it was such an important event. Historical significance is not lost on me, it's the emotional attachment to the event that I guess is different for me than it is for a lot of people. I've never been a person to just accept what I was told and pretty much question everything. A complete cynic in many ways. And I've always felt the very best thing we can do to defeat the actions of 9/11 was to return to "life as normal", rebuild the buildings as they were, and go about our lives in a way that says "you can attack us, but you can't hurt us, you can't change us".

Was 9/11 a tragedy? Of course. Does it deserve a National holiday? Absolutely not. Memorials, Remembrances, of course, but not a National holiday. For me, it wasn't even the worst day of that week.

I realize this isn't my best blog post ever, so thanks for bearing with me.

2009 Football Predictions

2009-09-08T11:17:00.002-04:00

(note: Facebookies, these Notes copy over from my blog, http://wellformedthoughts.blogspot.com/)

It's September 8, and I want to put these out for the record:

Maryland Terrapins - 5-7 (yes, I know they already got killed by Cal)
Washington Redskins - 6-10

Opinion: If Maryland goes 5-7, as I think, Ralph Freidgen should resign. You need to recruit better OL/DL/LB types, Ralph. Peer E Uhd.

Speculation: Last year for Jason Campbell in a Redskins uniform. Last year for Jim Zorn as head coach. Albert Haynesworth will remind people more of Dana Stubblefield than of Reggie White, and he'll miss at least 3 games. And hopefully, if they hire a Bill Cowher / Mike Shannahan / Jon Gruden type to come in, it means bye-bye for Vinny Cerrato. I'll help you pack your office, Vinny.

I'm down on both teams. Why? With both, it's the obvious lack of physical talent in the right areas. The Redskins will be more competitive because their defense has a chance to be quite good. I hope I'm wrong, but this is how I see it.

A Big Problem

2009-09-02T00:17:00.002-04:00

I was 21 years old in 1988 when the movie "Big" came out, and I remember going to see the movie with my friends Tim and Frank. For those of you who might be cinematically impaired, "Big" is a story about a boy who makes a wish and wakes up the next day as an adult, and follows his adventures over the span of a few months as he learns to be an adult all while trying to become a kid again. At the end of the movie, Tom Hank's character (Josh Baskin) goes back to being a kid and all is well.

When the movie was done, we began discussing how each of us would have handled that scenario. Back then, Tim was 22, and Frank was probably 35 or so. I steadfastly argued that Josh made a huge mistake going back, and should have continued his life as an adult. Sure, he went from being 11 to probably 30, but, in his short time as an adult he landed a great job (toy company executive), an awesome loft apartment, and a legitimate relationship with one of the most elegant and beautiful women I've ever seen (Elizabeth Perkins) in my entire life (even still to this day).

Frank was adamant that you had to go back to being a kid, and Tim agreed with Frank. Now, over the course of the last 21 years, I've forgotten why Tim took that position, but Frank took his stance based on the idea you could still have all those things later in life. I argued that was crazy, and that Josh had basically won the life lottery and might never get those things back.

And here I sit, 21 years later, at the age of 42, having just watched the middle portions of "Big" on cable, and it started me thinking about that discussion. And while I still think did win the life lottery, I have to admit I'm reconsidering my viewpoint. Perhaps it's my age, the extra life experience, perhaps it's just a mid-life crisis, but I'm starting to think Josh made the right decision in going back to being a kid, even if that meant giving up Elizabeth Perkins. Now, was Josh stupid for not liquidating all his assets and placing them in an offshore account before he went back so he'd be able to keep all that he earned? Maybe ;-)

What I'm really curious to know is, how would you handle that scenario? Would you stay as an adult or go back?

The Warp Core Breach

2009-07-06T22:03:00.001-04:00

4.5 oz Bacardi Superior (or any white, clear, cheap rum out there)
3 oz Bacardi Limon (or any lemon rum you can find)
1.5 oz Bacardi Select (Meyers Dark rum also works, or whatever dark rum your store has)
1.5 oz Bacardi Spice (Captain Morgans also works, but any spice rum will do)
1.5 oz Dekuyper Lucious Raspberry Rush (formerly known as Razzmatazz, this is the most important part, other Raspberry liquers don’t seem to work)
.75 oz Bacardi 151 (any 151 proof rum will do, since they all seem to taste like gasoline by themselves)
30 oz (1.5 bottles) Sobe Power (finding Aceorla/passion berry juice is too hard to find so just use Sobe Power, besides, the caffeine in the Sobe Power ads an extra kick to the drink)

Mix the alcohol, pour into a bowl, add the 30 oz of Sobe Power and food-grade dry ice and there you have it, the Warp Core Breach.

Jon Plus 8 - Beat it, Kate

2009-05-26T23:24:00.003-04:00

So the world watched with great anticipation as "Jon and Kate plus 8" premiered their new season last night on TLC. I haven't seen the new episode yet but man, am I tired of these two. For the unwashed, it's a reality/documentary about a family comprised of a husband, wife, a set of twins and a set of sextuplets.

I won't go into the tabloid stories, the rumors, etc., but I am left with one overall thought on the show: this woman, "Kate", would drive me insane. She's the perfect combination of martyr and shrew. Jon just seems like a guy who wants to be a dad and take care of his kids, and he seems completely beat down by this attention-loving wench.

Let me be clear about this: the only people I feel remotely bad for are the kids. Their chances of having normal lives have plummeted to somewhere just north of zero.

So I'll settle the issue for everyone. I'll grant the two an instant divorce and give the kids to Jon, not because I'm a father myself or because I'm a man, but I think he presents the only chance these kids have of experiencing something approaching a normal childhood. Kate gets custody of the TV show, the book deal, and the impending made-for-Lifetime movie. Oh, and she is legally barred from that awful reverse-mullet haircut she wears.

Honestly, someone needs to just slap these two around, lock them in a room and not let either of them out until it's all resolved or one of them dies of "natural causes". I've wondered if all this crap hasn't been manufactured to promote the show, maybe it has. I hope it has.

Redskins ruminations

2009-05-12T13:25:00.002-04:00

The QB for the Redskins, Jason Campbell, is in a contract year. And the Redskins tried REALLY hard to replace him before the draft.

So, you're reading it here first.

The starting QB for your 2010 Washington Redskins: Michael Vick.

He'd be inexpensive. He's a glamour name. He'd sell a boatload of jerseys. He doesn't need an offensive line (and he won't have one). And he'll go 7-9 or 9-7. It's a perfect fit.

Remember, I called it.

How bad are the Nats?

2009-04-14T11:37:00.003-04:00

How bad are the Washington Nationals this season? Bad. Really Bad.

This is a scene of the Phillies dugout before the played Washington in the Nats' home opener yesterday, a game in which the Phillies won 9-8. And apparently, they did while they were high. Ryan Howard, Phillies first baseman and the National League 2006 Most Valuable Player, is seen here doing the "puff puff pass" drill from spring training. Jayson Werth was quoted as saying "Dude, don't bogart the J".

After their win, the Phillies celebrated with nacho cheese Doritos and all the Pringles they could find in Southeast D.C., then went over to Five Guys and shut the place down.

The Nats fall to 0-7 for 2009. How bad are they? They lost 102 games last year. They'll probably lose 95-100 this year and I will not be surprised if they lost MORE than 102. It's one of the the worst major league pitching staffs I've ever seen, bar none. Defensively, they are mediocre at best. Ryan Zimmerman, the annointed "star" of the team, has shown nothing more average major league talent in his 4+ seasons and appears to be regressing defensively.

I love the Nats, they're my team and I'll go to more games if they lose than win (because there will be less crowds and traffic) but really, let's just just completely tank the next two seasons and get some good draft picks to rebuild the farm system. And if you someone could even possibly be traded for prospects, trade them.

I'm starting to hate CNN

2009-03-27T10:35:00.002-04:00

Why? Because they're producing less and less news for the sake of entertainment. And because of these stupid "iReports", where people submit their own "news". The latest?

"Earth Hour - People around the world are switching off their lights during Earth Hour 2009 on March 28. The movement hopes to draw attention to global warming. Could you spend an hour without electricity? What would you do during that time? Tell us how you plan to spend Earth Hour. Your video could be featured on CNN."

If you want to draw attention to Global Warming, say "Hey, I think this Global Warming this is a problem" or put a thermometer up somewhere. Honestly, please, someone tell me what time "Earth Hour" is supposed to happen. I will turn on every light I own, including my Christmas lights. If it has a cord and switch it'll be on in my house.

Even more annoying is CNN pandering to this crap. Just stop already.

Do I think Global Warming is real? Yes. Do I think it's a problem? Yes. But really, this scores a 10 on the "don't people have anything better to do?" scale.

Dora the, um.... Tweenager who explores... Part Two

2009-03-24T10:44:00.003-04:00

So, Mattel and Nickelodeon heard all the negative furor about the new "Dora the Explorer" being released this fall. And decided to release the new look now.

It's not too bad. I still don't think you mess with established icons, but she's not as "bratty" as I envisioned initially. I think all the inappropriate jokes about her (and more so about Diego) are still valid, but I have to give credit to Mattel and Nick for getting out in front of this one, so to speak. I felt since I blasted her when they initially announced this I should do this follow up entry.

Random kids show thought: I saw part of a newer episode of the Wiggles the other day, and they were doing a early Beatles spoof, and it was really well done - I actually LOL'ed at it. I'm really glad my son never got into the Wiggles, I probably would have had a lobotomy by now.

The Redskins

2009-03-13T11:24:00.002-04:00

Disclosure: I'm a Redskins fan. I love the team, always have and probably always will. But I hate the owner and I hate the way the team in run and managed.

So, in the last 2 weeks, the Redskins spent $180 million on the total contract values for THREE players. And I am convinced this was not done to improve the quality of the team. I am convinced this was done to make the club more marketable, more valuable, and to make more money for ownership.

$180 million for three players. Did I mentioned the Redskins layed off 40-plus people in "cost cutting" moves?

The headliner, Albert Haynesworth, is arguably the best defensive linemen in football. He's also just been indicted because of a car accident where the other drive is paralyzed due to his careless driving. The second signing, DeAngelo Hall, is a very good cornerback, who was deemed a malcontent in Atlanta and Oakland. Excuse me? How messed up do you have to be to be judged a malcontent with the Raiders?

Simply put, the Redskins are looking to sell jerseys, and have a team of headliners, not win football games. The sad part is, most people know this, most people see this, but the Redskins don't seem to care. After all, business is business.

Dora the, um.... Tweenager who explores... I think

2009-03-12T17:49:00.003-04:00

I read this today.

Apparently, "Dora the Explorer" is getting updated. Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I have a 5-year old son, so I've seen the show. A lot. But now, Dora will be like, I dunno, 12 or 13 or so. Which opens up a whole new set of scenarios, like "Dora has her first beer" or "Dora goes to Puberty Mountain".

I don't know. I don't think you mess with iconic figures so easily. If Dora no longer appeals to kids, let it go and come up with something else. Dora's cousin, Diego, will probably get the same treatment I suspect. Although I look for him to be fighting terrorists or playing professional sports instead of rescuing animals.

It's back!!!!!!!!!

2009-03-11T21:59:00.003-04:00

It's back! It's back! It's back! It's back! It's back! It's back! It's back! It's back! It's back! It's back!

What, you ask?

The Star Trek Experience !!!!!!!!

Yes, I know. It won't be the same. Ok, I accept that. But still, I honestly haven't been this jazzed in a long time.

Added: WOW!!!!!

If you build it ...

2009-03-10T17:11:00.004-04:00

According to this article, the last hurdle to bring the Metro out to Dulles and beyond has been cleared. And according to the website for the project, the end of the Phase 1 project will put a station less than 2 miles from my house sometime in the year 2013.

My property value should return to skyrocketing any minute now.

The funniest thing I have EVER seen

2009-03-04T15:35:00.001-05:00

Watch Prank War 7: The Half Million Dollar Shot on CollegeHumor

I love the Internet

2009-03-01T22:55:00.001-05:00

Hiya, Chuck

2009-02-24T13:22:00.000-05:00

So much for becoming the Governor of Alabama....

Time flies ...

2009-02-24T10:11:00.002-05:00

I watched the final episode of "Late Night with Conan O'Brien" last week, and all of the sudden I felt really old.

I remember - vividly - when Dave Letterman was the host of "Late Night". I remember Conan being introduced on "The Tonight Show" by Jay Leno as being the next host of "Late Night", and I remember watching Conan and thinking "this guy is pretty damn funny". And now Conan just finished up 16 years hosting that show.

16 years.

I guess if you're a glacier, 16 years isn't all that long. But I remember when *Letterman* started on that show - hell, I remember when Letterman had a daytime show (that bombed miserably). So to me, 16 years is a sizable chunk of time, but in retrospect it seems like not very long ago.

Conan is taking over for Leno, and other than being up against Letterman I hope Conan makes Leno looks like the unfunny dope he's always been. I had 5 or 6 "laugh out loud" moments watching Conan last week and if he brings that kind of creativity to 11:35, we're all in for a treat.

Up next ...

2009-02-23T17:25:00.002-05:00

Over a year ago I predicted on our podcast that the economy was going to be one the biggest issues in the 2008 Presidential Election. I also said that the economy was going to get really bad, and sadly it has.

I'm not going to argue the merits or failings of the most recent stimulus package. I'm simply going to point out what I think are the two key indicators to keep your eyes on for the time being.

Unemployment and Inflation.

Unemployment is the bigger of the two. At last look, it was around 7.3%. If this number gets up around 9% or higher, this downturn can easily become a depression and things could get really bad. As long as it stays below 8%, I think America can ride out this "downturn". Unemployment is key because if people are working, people are spending money. Our economy is based on money changing hands - consumer to business, business to business, lender to consumer, etc. and as long as that process continues in sufficient quantities, things won't get too bad. No other economic indicator is more telling of the health of our economy that unemployment.

Inflation is a tougher nut. Since a lot of organizations are freezing wages, rapid inflation devalues the currency we earn. The higher the rate of inflation, the faster it becomes devalued, and devalued currency has a similar effect to high unemployment. That's why the government prime lending rates are almost non-existent, to keep inflation down and keep the currency moving.

Food for thought, no more, no less.

Maryland Basketball

2009-02-17T22:30:00.004-05:00

I watched the Maryland / Clemson game tonight. I wish I hadn't, but it's probably a good thing that I did.

There was a series of three articles in the Washington Post last week about the decline of Maryland Basketball. A lot of fans called it a hatchet job, Gary-hating, etc.. After part one, I thought Gary Williams should be fired. After parts two and three, I pretty much felt that if you want to compete in big time College Basketball you have to get a little dirty and Gary won't do that. I thought Gary should be commended on sticking to his principles and not dealing with the shady side of the recruiting.

And then I watched the Maryland / Clemson game tonight.

The first half was competitive, even close. A hard fought half on both sides. And then in the second half, Clemson just basically said "F You" and did everything they wanted, ended up scoring 59 points (59?!?!?) in the second half to win by 29. And it just became so obvious to me.

Gary Williams is an excellent coach. He gave his team a chance to compete, a chance to steal a game. Maryland played hard, played smart. But my god, if this is the best basketball talent / athletes he can get, 30- and 40-point losses are going to become the norm, and quickly. The Maryland kids literally didn't belong on the same floor as the Clemson kids. Clemson was bigger, faster, more athletic, and better basketball players. There is not one player from Maryland who will play in the NBA, or even get a sniff. There is not one player who would start on MOST of the other 11 teams in the ACC. Grevious Vasquez, arguably Maryland's best player, is a mediocre (average) college player who plays with a lot of intensity. I felt so bad for the kids, and frankly you could see it on their faces - they just didn't belong out there.

Gary, thank you for the National Championship in 2002. Thank you for all your hard work and dedication, but I think the ability to recruit and evaluate talent is just as important in college sports as is X's and O's, and this is just not an area where Gary's style and system works anymore. Please Gary, retire gracefully and play golf 6 times a week, enjoy your grandkids and live a good life, but don't make them fire you, because that's coming and frankly, maybe it's needed.

Maryland plays Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest, N.C. State and Virginia to finish the season. I will be shocked if Duke, UNC, and Wake don't win by a combined 80 points. Maryland has no chance at the NCAA tournament and frankly won't fare well in the NIT either. But not because they didn't try, or play hard. It's just not there for these guys, and that is the saddest part.

Shameless plug

2009-02-06T01:04:00.002-05:00

My buddies and I do a podcast every now and then. It's fun.. usually. It's called "Some Guys in a Car" and you can get it through iTunes. We also have a website, www.someguysinacar.com.

I've probably taken part in about half to two-thirds of the shows, mostly later in our run. Our most recent posting, "While Steve's Away..." was completely edited and produced by me - the first time I've done anything like that in about 18 years. My buddy Steve has done an awesome job editing and producing and really deserves all the credit for building an actual show.

I recognize our little talent show isn't for everyone, and that's cool. But a lot of it is either very entertaining or very thought-provoking and worth checking out. Not for the kiddies, folks, by the way. But I think if you listen for a while, you'll like it.

Welcome

2009-02-05T15:54:00.003-05:00

I just joined "Facebook". If you found this blog via that site, welcome. If you found it because you did a google search "most awesome dude. ever.", welcome.

Age has taught me to NOT say everything I think. So now, I try to stick to only the "well-formed" thoughts in terms of public consumption. Most of the time.

That's all I have to say about that.

Can you spare some change?

2009-01-21T10:18:00.002-05:00

So, Barack Obama has been President of the United States for about twenty three hours now, and it seems to be going well so far. I would hope so, anyway. But oddly, the thoughts that stick out about the last 48 hours for me are about George W. Bush, the outgoing President.

And you know, it really bothered me that he got booed as he was introduced at the Inaguration. I don't care if you like him or not, if you think he did a good job or not - you respect the Office of the President. I'll be the first one to cite all the things were I think he didn't do a very good job over his 8 years, but I would never just boo him because I believe in the deepest part of my heart that he honestly tried his best. I think history will look back at him with a rather unfavorable assesment of his Presidency - as will I. I think we are FAR worse off than we were 8 years ago, in every way you can imagine. But there is a big difference between articulating one's disdain for something and simply saying "Boooooo".

It's debateable whether or not he actually won the 2000 election - in either case he got less popular votes than his opponent. The 2004 election was handed to him via mudslinging and fear mongering ("It's too risky to elect John Kerry") and even that came down to a relatively thin margin in Ohio. And if you read some of the interviews he gave in the last few weeks, it's clear he knows he made mistakes and would do at least a few things differently. Look, my biggest beef with W was how he interpreted the Constitution, something I strongly disagree with and will always disagree with. And perhaps even that is misdirected, since a lot of what I had issues with could be attributed to what people around him were telling him and advising him to do, but I don't think so. He's the man responsible because he's in charge. I could write for an hour about where I think he went wrong, but I won't. His time has passed and I don't see the point of piling on.

It's your right to boo. It's guaranteed in the Bill of Rights under "Free Speech". But just because it's your right doesn't mean you can't show some respect as well, especially while the world watches. Just turn the page, America.

Overdoing it just a * tiny * bit

2009-01-14T00:24:00.002-05:00

So, in less than a week, Barack Obama gets sworn in as President of the United States. And to commemorate this fine occasion, Federal and local governments have decided to screw things so royally in terms of traffic that it won't even be funny.

The Washington Post has a nice summary of this.

But I guess I'm some sort of Anarchist, or Un-American. To me, if the threat to "security" is so great that this is what is required, then MOVE THE DAMN THING. Seriously. Have it at the front door of the White House. Obama says "So Help Me God", they change the "Welcome" mat from Red to Blue, hand him the keys, and get the F*** to work. No parade. No parties. He can give his speech from the White House press room or the Oval Office.

And why the hell would you want to go stand a half-mile from someone giving a speech in 29 degree weather with a 25% chance of precipitation? To say you where there? Honestly, that doesn't impress anyone. Ok, maybe when Buzz Aldrin says "yeah, I was there, I saw the First Man step on the Moon" or something along those, then I think "being there" was impressive. But the orderly and voluntary transition of power, while pretty amazing, does not require 4 million eyewitnesses. Go home and watch it in High Def.

My friend Steve is leaving town for a few days. Personally, I think it's as much of a protest as it is to avoid all of this, and I'm still trying to figure out how he got leave approved (given his job). I won't be going anywhere - there's no need I figure. If there was a legitimate, credible threat I'm hoping he would tip me off and since he hasn't then there isn't one or he's pissed at me.

Look, I'm not oblivious to the importance of the first black President. But effectively walling off half of the city and shutting down traffic on this scale? Nope, sorry.

Now get to work, Obama.

It takes brass ones, baby

2009-01-12T14:47:00.002-05:00

Stargate Atlantis ended last Friday, with the Wraith (the show bad guys) figuring out where Earth is and showing up, but getting destroyed just in the nick of time by Atlantis (they flew the entire city from one galaxy to another in like 30 minutes. Riiiiight). The show ended with the City of Atlantis floating off the coast of San Francisco, invisible to everyone outside of it. So they moved the setting to Earth for any follow up movies they decide.

It's the biggest wimp out ending of all time.

What they SHOULD have done, if they had ANY balls, is have the Wraith show up at Earth and kill everyone. Period.

How great would that have been? I liked the show, but, talk about a ballsy ending. No happy ending, no feel good. Just "Wow, we lost". It would have been the most talked about TV show in a very long time.

Awesomeness wrapped up in an awesome bun with cheese

2008-12-30T14:37:00.002-05:00

I had forgotten how awesome Rocky IV was. Not because it was a great movie - in the Rocky series, it embodied every possible "Rocky Cliche" developed in the first three movies. But what Rocky IV did was perfect the montage. I present for you, my humble reader, two of the best montage spoof/tributes I have ever seen:

F*** Joe the Plumber

2008-12-11T10:07:00.003-05:00

Honestly, the title says it all.

So, this tool, "Joe", came out said he didn't even like McCain, after all.

From the article:

he said he was appalled by former GOP presidential nominee John McCain's reasons for supporting the government's $700 billion bank bailout plan. "I was angry," Wurzelbacher said. "In fact, I wanted to get off the bus after I talked to him."

So what was he angry about? He won't say. "Joe" says if you want to know, you'll have to READ HIS BOOK, which is due out shortly.

No longer shall he be known as "Joe the Plumber", but now he can be called "Joe the Author". It's bad enough that America decided to make this guy a expert of Modern Economic and Governmental Theory (I'm sure he's well-qualified in both areas, with advanced degrees and such on both topics), but now he's cashing in with a book deal. I don't blame him for making money on the book thing, I blame the people who said "You know what would be a good book? Something written by Joe the Plumber".

Honestly, I didn't even care until I read the "if you want to know, read my book" bit. Go F yourself, Joe the Tool.

Breaking news: I have learned the title of his new book. It's "Joe the Plumber and Curious George visit Washington D.C.". Apparently, they find this little paper guy, Bill, singing about how he wants to be a Law someday, but the Man in the Yellow Hat ties up Bill in committee where dies a long, slow, painful death.

Listen *sswipe, your fifteen minutes were up on November 4th. Go away. Now.

Updated: 194,976 people responded thus far to the poll question "Will you buy his book?" 88% said no, 4% (8,045) said yes.

Today's well-formed thought

2008-11-21T10:28:00.003-05:00

So, last week, my next door neighbor died. Her name was Norma, and she was 63. She had bone cancer, which is pretty damn painful. It's just about one of the most painful things you can ever have, a 10 on a 10 scale. She had it about 5 years ago or so, and got through it the first time, but it took a LOT out of her and she was never quite the same in the time following. When it relapsed, she didn't last very long, maybe 3 months. None of this is all that remarkable, in and of itself. People get sick. People die - it's part of a normal life cycle I suppose. But it pisses me off.

Norma was one of the nicest, sweetest people I've ever met. I've met some very nice people, I've met some not-so-nice people, so I do have a sense of perspective. She was on the far right side of the bell curve. She was basically an old hippie - a liberal Unitarian - and after her mother passed away she lived alone (she lived with her mother when I moved here). I don't believe she was ever married, and she never had any children. She was a really good neighbor in the sense that she never was anything but pleasant, cheerful, and friendly. She was not the most robust person in the world, physically, so I would try and do little things to help her, like shovel a little bit of snow or blow leaves, stuff like that.

And it really pisses me off that people like her, people like my friend Tim's Mom, Shirley, people like my own Mom, don't get to enjoy the full measure of a lifetime, and enjoy all that life has to offer, and have to suffer horribly before dying. Literally, it feels like they were cheated of some of the best years of their lives, the times when they should be able to enjoy all the love and happiness and charity they've shared, and instead they all got sick and died. How old is old enough to have lived a full life? What's the standard for a quality life? I don't know. I know in my mom's case, all she ever wanted was to be a "granny" (the term she wanted for herself), something she never got to have happen. I suspect there are things that Shirley and things that Norma would have liked to have happen or done and weren't able to do, either.

I have a very difficult time rationalizing there is a "God" when I think about things like this. My friend Steve, in the midst of a heated discussion, accused me of not having any faith. He's 100.00% right- I don't have HIS faith, or faith by his standards, and I never will. And I am damn proud of that. There is no way a "God" allows people like Norma to suffer, allows people like Shirley to suffer, people who were nothing but kind and friendly and loving. Good people, the kind of who make the lives better for those they meet. It's when these people get "cheated" that I get angry.

I do have faith - I have faith in my friends, faith in my family. Frankly, I don't care what anyone else believes, which is why I'm so anti-religion (specifically organized ones) especially for myself. I think people can and should believe whatever they want, as long as it doesn't bother, hurt or impact other people in a negative way. You want to be Islamic, Catholic, Methodist, Jewish, Unitarian, or a Scientologist? Great, go be happy - just keep it to yourself as far as I'm concerned and don't judge me because I don't share your beliefs. Honestly, I completely respect whatever it is you want to believe and makes you feel good, just give me the same latitude. But I digress.

Norma is gone, her house will be empty soon and then it won't be. I'll remember her, all her kookiness and eccentricities, and I'll miss her from time to time. I supposed I could draw solace from the fact she's not in pain anymore, but that seems a rather empty concept to me. More than likely, I'll just hope that whatever good might come of dying, she's able to have that happen for her - she certainly earned it.

2008-11-17T13:56:00.003-05:00

Actual poll from redskins.com. Note the 5th option:

No comments. Just watch

2008-11-17T12:00:00.000-05:00

Ok, one comment. That's a REALLY cool cake.

Man-Handled

2008-11-17T10:38:00.003-05:00

I watched the entirety of the Cowboys / Redskins game last night, except for the last few plays where Dallas was just taking a knee to run out the clock.

This is the second week in a row that they got man-handled. Especially the offensive line.

After the preseason, after week 1 when the Giants man-handled them, I told my buddy Tim I just didn't think this was a very good football team. They then played 5-1 football, and won some very big games. At one point, Tim was razzing me, and I told him I still wasn't convinced. But after giving up 10 sacks in two games and scoring 13 points total over those two games, I think the real team is the one we're seeing now.

What I saw in August was a team with an old, slow, offensive line who couldn't pass block and was mediocre in run blocking. The defensive line got p0wned as well, especially the defensive ends who couldn't stop the run OR rush the passer. Pittsburgh, and now Dallas, dominated in the trenches.

I was wrong about Jason Campbell, the quarterback. He's improving almost every week and his mechanics and technique are much improved. And the defense has played better than I thought they would this season. But football is mostly about the basics - blocking and tackling. Generally speaking, the teams who excel in those areas win.

It's also about imposing your will on your opponent. And the Redskins are allowing other teams to impose their will on them.

New layout

2008-11-17T10:35:00.002-05:00

Tweaked the layout a bit. I really hated the tight column format.

Drool ...

2008-11-14T15:13:00.003-05:00

I have *got* to get me one of these.

Senate races

2008-11-10T17:53:00.003-05:00

Votes counted in Minnesota's senate race: 2,833,089

Votes separating Norm Coleman and Al Franken: 221

To me that is simply astounding, but not as astounding as Ted Stevens, Convicted Felon and U.S. Senator from Alaska, who went from trailing in the polls to a slight lead as of today. The only place I've heard any rumblings of hanky panky with voting is Alaska, where the Presidential race, the Senate race, and a key House race all came in about 10% stronger for the GOP above where they were predicted in the days leading up to the election. Personally, I think it's a statistical anomoly.

I also think when all the counting is done, the Dems will win both of those seats.

Georgia looks to be heading for a runoff. This is where the GOP makes a last ditch Little Bighorn stand to keep the Dems from geting control of 60 Senate seats. In fact, a GOP spokesman, when asked about these Senate races, said they consider anything less than 60 to be a major victory for the GOP.

Personally, I hope they keep it at 59 or less. I love Fillibusters. I love Senators reading from cookbooks, textbooks, and comic books just to keep talking. I think it also bodes better for the Dems in 2010 to NOT have a "Perfect Storm"-level sweep. But most importantly, I think both sides of ALL issues need to be heard.

The morning after ...

2008-11-05T10:05:00.003-05:00

Like many people around the world, I watched the speeches by both Jon McCain and Barack Obama. I was impressed by both, for different reasons. McCain's speech was a true concession and it crystallized, for me, the most important thing about John McCain - that he is a honorable man with good intentions and understands the damage that divisivness can cause. (amusing game to waste time - go back and watch his speech again, and if you find one non-white person, I will buy you lunch)

Obama's speech was not celebratory at all, rather very serious with two messages. One, there is a lot of hard work to be done, and two, a group of people who believe in something can make it happen. (amusing game #2 - every time you seen Jesse Jackson crying, take a drink)

If this election had been held in mid-August I probably would have voted for John McCain, and I said as much. There are two reasons why I didn't and voted for Barack Obama instead.

One, Supreme Court Justices. The court skews slightly to the right already, and its important for the Supreme Court to be as balanced as possible in my opinion. I couldn't count on John McCain to recognize this and make it happen, especially in light of the second reason.

Two, McCain made a tactical error in moving his position more to the right after establishing a firm foothold near the middle. The problem here is some of the GOP base are Conservative Christrian fanatics (or radicals, take your pick), have a lot of money and wield a lot of influence in the GOP. Someone got in McCain's ear and told him he needed to move to the right, pick a far-right running mate and count on the far-right to bring this thing home. Remember that a lot of conservatives were very critical of McCain during the primaries and a lot of people were speculating that the conservatives would just stay home on election day. He wasn't polling well with the far right and someone convinced him to go after them. It was a gamble and it failed. IMHO, if McCain had stayed near the middle, picking a Tom Ridge for example (someone who could've helped in Pennslyvania) he might have made this closer. If he had been a real maverick and picked Joe Leiberman, this *might* have gone the other way. Palin brought nothing to the table except nice clothes and the attack dog attitude, and helped him win precisely zero states. Colin Powell said it perfectly - everything that has transpired since the conventions was a sort of final exam, and Obama did a better job on that exam. I believe McCain lost two moderate votes for every conservative vote he picked up, and I believe that was the difference.

The Republican party in general is now deep in the midst of an identity crisis. You have one faction who wants to move the party FURTHER right (if that's possible) and another who believe the party needs to be more open and more centrist.

One last thing for now. If you REALLY think Obama getting elected is the onset Socialism, you truly don't understand government. True Socialism advocates state or collective ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods, and the creation of an egalitarian (which is a political doctrine that holds that all people should be treated as equals and have the same political, economic, social, and civil rights) society. Our government - almost any form of government for that matter - engages in selective forms of socialism. As long as there are taxes, as long as we have public schools, libraries, highways, police, military, courts, medical research, etc, we will have some form of socialism (in this case, the collection and selective redistribution of wealth for the purpose of providing services to and for the betterment of our society). Having "Joe the Plumber" call something socialist doesn't make it it. Of course, I suppose Joe T. Plumber could have advanced degrees in Political Science and Economics - but I doubt it.

Personally, I would do away with income tax altogether, and institute a National Sales Tax. Honestly, if you make $80,000 and keep $50,000 to spend on your needs, wouldn't you rather keep $80,000 and pay and extra 15% sales tax? Tell me how that doesn't work out better for everyone. Please.

The GOP spent the last 6 months trying to hang a tag on Obama - anti-american, muslim, radical, socialist - in an effort to scare people into drinking the McCainorade and voting AGAINST Obama as much as for John McCain. It's fascinating to me how they kept trying to drag the election down to a negative campaign and the Democrats just wouldn't bite and ran a campaign based on their message.

Hey, here's a tag the GOP can now hang on Obama: President-Elect.

They won't call it, so I will

2008-11-04T21:54:00.005-05:00

Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.

Most news networks have called enough states to give Obama either 199 or 200 electoral votes. Combine those with the mortal locks from Iowa (7), California (55), Oregon (7), and Washington (11) you get either 279 or 280 (270 needed).

I was off on a network calling it 9:30, Virginia and Florida are being persnickety.

update: dagnabbit - fivethirtyeight.com beat me to the punch by 8 minutes.

second update: for my good friend Steve. Please write from up north.

A strongly worded rant

2008-11-04T15:30:00.002-05:00

You know who really annoys me these days?

These guys.

aka CNN's "iReport", or, CNN's "Annoying People with Video Cameras".

I don't need to see the world through the lens of the average person - I already have that perspective. I don't need to know that some 23-year old grad student in Sheboygan think it's "really great we get to vote in this country". I don't care if some dude saw "news" happen and filmed it on his cellphone. I'm ready to punch these people in the throat.

I guess CNN is too lazy, ER, cheap, ER, "focused on the big picture" to actually do reporting these days. And what's worse, they've started putting these tools up on the TV as they go to/come from commercial. I guess they are hoping people will watch in the hopes of seeing their 10 seconds of uploaded crap on TV.

Now, some of this, it's moderately interesting. Some guy uploaded 25 minutes of footage of people acting like morons in Philadelphia after the Phillies won the World Series, burning stuff, etc. That held my interest for a good 2 minutes. But for the most part, if I want user-uploaded "news", I'll go to Youtube.

Electoral prediction

2008-11-03T23:17:00.003-05:00

It's less than an hour to election day here on the East coast... so here goes:

Obama - 338
McCain - 200

Bonus prediction: At least one major network will declare Obama the winner BEFORE polls close on the West coast, maybe as early as 9:30 PM. I just don't see how this is going to be all that close, with key wins for Obama coming in Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.

Update 8:32 AM 11/4 - Forgot to throw this in, but hey! it's not too late: Also predicting the Democrats will control 57 Senate seats at the end of the day.

You got some 'splaining to do, Lucy

2008-10-30T09:36:00.001-04:00

Three years ago Hurricane Katrina came rolling through the Gulf Coast and pretty much wrecked most of Louisiana. But before the winds had even died down, Gas prices were skyrocketing, almost doubling overnight in many places. Gas shortages abound.

Things quieted down eventually, but the price of gas never really recovered, getting over $4.00 a gallon this past summer. "It's the price of crude oil" said the gas companies, and they dutifully passed along the expense in the price of their product. Over the last 8 weeks the price of oil has come down by more than half, yet, gas prices (by my rough estimation) have come down 25-40%, maybe.

So imagine my thoughts when I see this headline screamed across CNN.com this morning:

Exxon Mobil: Biggest profit in U.S. history

Hmmmmmmm.

Seriously - am I the only one who gets pissed off about this? Because the way I see it, Exxon Mobil has been inflating prices beyond what is reasonable in order to increase their profits to *record* numbers. That's also known as "price gouging". I understand companies want to make money. I understand they have an obligation to provide value for their shareholders.

Honestly, and I'm not a fan of this, but they are begging for the Federal government to begin regulating them. A lot of our economy is based on the idea that fuel is cheap, that transporting goods for sale is cheap. As the price of fuel goes up, the health of our economy went down.

I call on everyone out there to rise up, gather sticks and stones and pitchforks and torches and guns and bombs and take ALL the gas from their local gas stations, teach those companies a lesson!!!!

Ok, not really. That would pretty much be stupid. Don't do that. But enough is enough.

Sounds like our podcast

2008-10-27T10:58:00.003-04:00

Ok, so every AM I take about 10 minutes and skim the news websites for interesting or enlightening information. Obviously, one of the major topics in the news is the upcoming Presidential election.

It was on CNN.com that I found this little nugget about Sarah Palin.

Now, I'll concede the point that any election is not over until the last hanging chad is either counted or ignored. And I'll avoid the possibility for rigging elections with all the electronic voting machines. For now. But really, if you're the GOP, is this the time you want to paint anyone or anything in your own house in a bad light?

Happy fun excerpts:

" Several McCain advisers have suggested to CNN that they have become increasingly frustrated with what one aide described as Palin "going rogue." "

" A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign. "

" "She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else." "

The article goes on to cite other instances where the V.P. candidates disagreed with the general campaign strategy. My analysis? She's trying to find some way, any way, to stay relevant on and after November 5th. I wish her luck.

Updated: Electoral Predictions

2008-10-27T10:47:00.003-04:00

As an update to this blog entry, I have revised my latest Electoral prediction for next week's Presidential Election. As of the time of this posting, I have it at :

Barack Obama - 338
John McCain - 200

I intend on making one more updated prediction on 11/3. I've always fancied myself as someone who can accurately process raw information and draw accurate and useful conclusions from that data, so I'm curious to see how close I can get to the actual number.

Make your own prediction in the comments section if you'd like.

UPDATED 10/29 - WAY COOL statistical analysis website HERE

Not even a little peck on the cheek?

2008-10-24T10:16:00.002-04:00

In case you have been following the news, the world appears to be in a "slight" economic crisis. I've noticed the price of a gallon of gas has been dropping steadily for the last few weeks - $2.93 a gallon the other day here in Northern VA - which is a good thing. But I started to wonder why, so I check the price of oil. All this week, a barrrel of crude oil has been hanging around just below the $70 mark.

"Wow" I thought, "That's like half what it was a few months ago". I started to get a little more curious... So I called my buddy, Google.

It wasn't long before I discovered that the range of prices for a gallon of gas when oil was in this range varied from around $2.00 to $2.50 a gallon. Yet, I just paid $2.93.

No, I know other factors come into play, but I have to say, the idea that I'm paying that much more (as much as 40% more) for gas when oil was this price, well, I feel like Andy Dufresne when he first got to Shawshank and met up with "The Sisters", who had their way with him until Andy got in good with the guards.

I don't blame a company for trying to make a profit, but there comes a point when it's simply taking advantage of people...

They're not old. They're "Chronologically Challenged"

2008-10-20T12:13:00.005-04:00

Driving home yesterday, I was listening to the Redskins / Browns game on the radio. The Redskins radio team - Larry Michael, Sam Huff, and Sonny Jurgensen - were the main source of my entertainment, and not the game.

First you have Larry Michael (far right), who is kind of cross between a play-by-play announcer and a wrestling manager. To call him a homer would be like saying Osama Bin Laden *might* be wanted as a person of interest in the whole 9/11 affair - it's an understatement. He's not bad when it comes to telling you what just happened on the field, unless you want accurate facts like score, time, who ran which way, etc. Larry has decided the Washington Post is trying to infiltrate "Redskins Nation" and is nothing more than a bad PR guy masquerading as a broadcaster. A bad broadcaster.

Then there's Sonny Jurgensen (middle), Hall of Fame Quarterback. He's pretty good, and the color commentary is insightful to both novice and seasoned fans. Sonny's real name is Christian Adolph Jurgensen. You'd go by Sonny, too, if that was your name. I like Sonny. He's smart, observant, and funny. He could also throw a football 30 yards behind his back. I'm not kidding.

Then there's Sam Huff (far left). Sam is in the Hall of Fame as well, as a linebacker. He played for the Giants and Redskins and was one of the meanest linebackers of his era. Apparently, now, he's brain damaged. Or something. I can't decide if it's an act or just the way he is. Just before halftime, as the Redskins were driving for a field goal attempt, Huff told his broadcast partners he was hoping the Redskins wouldn't call timeout because he was ready for a commercial. Odd. Then about 10 seconds later, he said something to the effect of "Man, I really need to go".

I'm 41. I've never heard a broadcaster intentionally say he had to go to the bathroom ON THE AIR. The mental image of a Hall of Fame linebacker doing a pee-pee dance was most entertaining. Sam also seems to forget things. A lot.

Huff: "They should run right more. They do great running right. Never left, nothing to the left."

A couple minutes pass.

Huff: "The should run left more. All the yards are to the left."
Jurgensen: "You just said they need to run right."
Huff: "No I didn't. You quarterbacks don't know right from left."
Jurgensen: "But I do know brain damage when I hear it." *
Huff: "They can't run right. All the linebackers are over there."
Jurgensen: "Shut up, you old Feeb." *

So, for the better part of an hour, I listened to these two guys go back and forth, and I swear I can hear Sonny getting more and more ticked at Spongebob Geezerpants. I couldn't turn it off - I was waiting to see what Sam was going to order for lunch, or what kind of flower he would take to his 1st grade teacher on Monday.

* Words not actually spoken by Jurgensen, but an interpretation of the groans he let out listening to Huff.

Keep it on the chips

2008-10-19T11:30:00.000-04:00

It's solid beef, baby.

A nail in the coffin

2008-10-19T10:40:00.002-04:00

I've been watching this Presidential Race with great curiosity, even flip-flopping a couple of times on who I would vote for in November. Personally, I'm not a big fan of either candidate. Barack Obama seems to get by, in my opinion only, too much on charm and charisma. John McCain, well, there's not a doubt in my mind he's a "Great American" and that he has sacrificed a lot for his country, but I've seen nothing to tell me he can make the right decision at the right time.

And now, Former Secretary of State and Four Star General Colin Powell has come out with a fairly strong endorsement of Barack Obama. What's also interesting is that in 2007 Powell donated the personal maximum to John McCain's campaign.

Here's some pertinent blurb:

Colin Powell appeared on the NBC program Meet the Press to announce that he would be voting for Senator Barack Obama in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. Powell referred to the Republican candidate, John McCain, as a "friend of over 25 years," but cited several points that had led him to decide in favor of Obama. Powell said that in response to an ongoing financial crisis "Mr. McCain was a little unsure as to how to deal with the economic problems we're facing." He said of McCain's choice of Vice-Presidential running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, "I don't believe she's ready to be President of the United States."

Speaking of the Democratic candidate, Powell mentioned Obama's "intellectual vigor" and what he described as the inclusiveness of Obama's campaign, as opposed to the "narrower and narrower" approach of the Republican party. Powell was dismissive of the McCain campaign making "almost a central issue" of Obama's association with William Ayers, calling it "a stretch." He said that he was disappointed by the Republican party's move to the right, and Palin's indications of a further trend in that direction. In particular, Powell mentioned that "high-level" Republicans had repeated to him the rumor that Obama is a Muslim. Powell said, "He's not a Muslim. He's a Christian; he's always been a Christian," and condemned the notion of Islamic faith as a disqualification from the Presidency. He told the story of a Muslim American soldier who died in the Iraq war, and asked, "Is there something wrong with a seven-year-old Muslim kid thinking he or she could be President?"

Meet the Press host Tom Brokaw asked Powell for a response to the sentiment that Powell might be endorsing Obama because both Powell and Obama are African-American. Powell said that if that were the basis for his decision, he could have made an endorsement "six or eight months ago."

I think what I find most interesting is Powell's near-condemnation of the GOP. Personally, I fully expect the GOP to roll out every negative attack ad and misleading rumor they've got left in their bag this coming week, but at this point it looks to be nothing more than shouting at the wind.

2008 General Election

2008-10-17T14:18:00.003-04:00

Picking the winner of this Presidential race, well, that's too easy. No, a good contest is to pick the winner AND the number of electoral votes. There's a cool tool to do that here. FYI, if you divide up the states by who is leading, giving ties to McCain, Obama gets 313 electoral votes. You need to 270 to win a majority.

Interesting how the Democrats seem to have WAY more money to spend in this election than the Republicans. I wonder how much that has influenced the "battleground" states this time around.

Take On Me

2008-10-17T13:45:00.004-04:00

This is what happens when you take things too literally.

I always wanted to be a sketch-drawn henchman.

Wow

2008-10-17T10:58:00.002-04:00

So last night after putting my son to bed, I checked in on the Rays / Red Sox game. it was the top of the 3rd inning and it was 5-0 Rays. Now, I'm not a HUGE fan of either team, but I would have to call myself a Red Sox fan - their probably my favorite American League team. So I watched for a bit, then when down to check the computer for new emails, etc..

When I came back to the television, it was the top of the 7th, and Manny Delcarmen had just walked two Rays. Sensing the game slipping away, Red Sox manager Terry (Tito) Francona brought in his closer, Jonathan Papelbon. Paps gave up a double off The Monstah and it was 7-0 Rays. He got out of the inning, and the Fenway faitfhful started to leave.

Idiots.

I've been to Fenway. It's the very best place you could ever imagine for watching a baseball game, for enjoying baseball. I couldn't believe people were leaving. I'll grant you, the Sox have played poorly the past 2 1/2 games. But this team came back down 3-0 in the ALCS to the Yankees in 2004 and down 3-1 in the ALCS to the Indians and 2007. But there they were, some of them, enough to have it matter, leaving.

Morons.

So what happened?

The Sox scored 4 in the 7th, 3 in the 8th to tie and 1 in the 9th to win 8-7. I literally couldn't bring myself to get off the couch, not even between innings. David "Big Papi" Ortiz hit a 3-run homer in the 7th, and from that point on I knew I was watching something special, something memorable. In my minds eye, I saw that pitch travel that exact same path - down and in - and Papi just turn on it. They have been pitching him inside all series, but up where couldn't get anything on it. No, the pitch HAD to be down for him to have a chance. And then it happened. I couldn't believe it. I watched the top of 8th, watched Papelbon not have his best fastball, and it was the most nerve wracking 8 minutes I've had in a long time. But he shut them down, and the comeback was on.

The lesson here? Unless you've got a 4-year old (like I do) you don't leave early. EVER. And if you have a 4-year old, don't bring him to a playoff game - it ended after midnight ET.

Baseball has been called a slow game, lots of standing around staring at dirt and grass. Ok, won't argue that. But in October, in the playoffs, that slow pace can allow drama to build, intrigue to develop, and heroes to rise from being down 7-0 with 2 outs in the 7th inning.

Torturing Democracy ...

2008-10-16T12:35:00.002-04:00

is the name of a new documentary examining the Bush administration’s detention and interrogation policies, produced and written by Sherry Jones.

Ok, so that's not news.

But what is news is that the documentary, which was developed for PBS (Public Television) was denied a "national" airdate until January 21, 2009. The day after the Bush Administration is replaced.

The New York Times has the article here.

I'm all for delaying running the documentary until after the November 4th general election. But the article makes the implication that part of the reason it's being held up is because PBS gets Federal funding. Now, whether the idea is that PBS is worried about losing future funding, or that the Federal government is exerting influence *because* it provides funding, I don't know.

No matter. Most of the stations that make up "Public Television" have decided to run the documentary anyway, independently. Unless you're in DC, where it can't seem to get on the schedule. Shocker.

The entire 90-minute “Torturing Democracy” documentary can be seen at torturingdemocracy.org .

Boldly going ...

2008-10-16T09:36:00.005-04:00

So I've been noodling for the past week about what to do for my first "blog" entry, and today I finally came up with something cool.

Oh, hi. BTW, my name is Rob. This is my blog. What it really is is a place for me to rant and rave about stuff that for at least 30 seconds is interesting to me. If you found this blog via the podcast "Some Guys in a Car", welcome. If you found it because I pointed you here, welcome. If you found it because you heard I had the world's largest collection of furniture porn, you may want to look here. Or ask the gentlemen in the corner about our "VIP" room.

So one of the things I've been looking forward to for a while now is J.J. Abrahms "reboot" of the Star Trek franchise. Entertainment Weekly has the first "scoop" of the new movie, and I have to say, I extremely optimistic at this stage. Pictures included!

I love Star Trek. Could not tell you exactly why, but something about it just rings true for me. It was sad to see the previous brain trust guide the franchise down into the toilet, and I was starting to think that it was done, for good. Sometimes old things have to be thrown out, stuck in the back of a closet in an old shoe box, or just given away on Craigslist, and I was ok with that in terms of Star Trek.

But the new movie.... Yeah, I'm ready to try this again. But there's a catch. As I said before, this is a reboot - a complete revision of the franchise as we know it. The names are familiar. The colors, shapes, and I'm guessing sounds will all be as well. But from what I can tell, from that point on anyone going to see this movie needs to have an open mind. Why? Because Abrahms and his gang have thrown out the old book, and brought a whole new book full of blank pages with them. What was once considered mythos will not be any longer.

Morpheus said it best - "Free your mind".

And buckle up. Full trailer comes out November 14 with the new James Bond film. Release date is May 8, 2009. Rumors of overzealous trekkies already in line are greatly exaggerated.